This week, Courtney, Susan, and I chose an article on
the Patriots titled No, CBS Sports, the
Patriots Have not Found an Edge on Coin Flips by Harrison Chase. We picked
this article because it gives a real-world example of finding the probability
of multiple independent events occurring. It has a good mix of vocabulary from
the probability unit and has some rare words as well. The article came from a
sports blog called Harvard Sports Analysis, which we found by doing a Google
search.
As the reader, I found this text to aid in the understanding
of how to find the probability of multiple independent events. The most significant
parts of this text were the breakdown of the probability of the Patriots
winning 19 of 25 coin tosses, the probability that at least one team in the NFL
can achieve this, and the probability of this not happening at all. The quotation
that stuck out to me the most was,
Even
if you restricted it to not all results as extreme in either direction but just
results of 19 or greater, the probability of one or more teams achieving that
is still nearly 20%.
This quote stuck with me as I read the article because
as I thought about the probability of continuously winning a coin flip over 50%
of the time, I thought that that percentage was somewhat higher than expected. Some
of the words that are important were probability, independent, simulation, and
significant. These words are important to know the definition and their meaning
in statistics to understand the breakdown of the data being presented in the
article.
In teaching the students using this text, students need
to know vocabulary and process of finding the probability of multiple
independent events. If events are independent, they need to know to multiple
each probability of each separate success of an event together. In this case,
they need to know the probability of a coin toss. The background that they
would be given for this would be an exploration in simulating a coin toss. When
I introduce this concept to students, we do labs with coin toss and dice roll
to see that none of the events depend on the outcome of one another and they
are they are separate and independent. The meaning behind this article is not a
complex one. It takes students through finding the probability of winning and
losing multiple coin tosses for one team and across multiple teams. The author
shares some of his biases in supporting the Patriots with statements such as, “clearly
with Deflategate out of the way the media is looking for something else to accuse
the Patriots of” and “both common sense and statistics will tell you that the Patriots
have not been cheating by winning coin flips at an ‘impossible’ rate”. Though
it is from his point of view, it does not change the mathematics presented. The
article also flows well with going through the probability of the Patriots
winning 19 out of 25 coin flips, winning fewer than 6 coin flips, at least one
team having a record of 19 out of 25 flip wins out of 32 teams, and the
probability of one or more teams achieving that coin flip record. The author also
makes these comparisons to prove his point that the Patriots are not cheating
during coin flips. This sports article is used to support the Patriots against
media criticism for cheating at another aspect of football and gives a breakdown
of the math to support the case.
The strategy I am using for this article is paired
questioning. “In Paired Questioning, students engage in actively generating
questions during reading” (McLaughlin, 2015). I would integrate this strategy
into my lesson using this article by doing 5 steps, explain, demonstrate,
guide, practice, and reflect. I would explain paired questioning to them and
how the activity is going to flow with the student and their pair generating
questions to one another, taking turns asking and answering. I would
demonstrate this explanation with them using an example from a previous reading
we had done in class. Because the article is not separated into sections, I would
have the students look at the first three paragraphs, then the paragraph 4,
then paragraphs 5 and 6. Once the students have read the three sections,
engaging in paired questioning at the end of each one, I would have them look
at the article as a whole and have them state their opinions and knowledge from
what they were able to grasp from the article. At the end, the class would
reflect on our opinions and understandings of the text.
I think that this article, though short, is a good
break down on how probability is used to analyze sports. It incorporates vocabulary
from the unit and calculations learned. It has a good mix of vocabulary and
biases from the author, who seems to be in support of the Patriots. Each student
can form their opinion on whether they think the Patriots are “cheaters” based
on their understanding of the article and their view on the Patriots outside of
the article. I think this article can strike controversy amongst classmates
based on who their favorite NFL team.
References
McLaughlin, M. (2015). Content Area Reading: Teaching
and Learning for College and Career Readiness. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson.
Chase, H. (2015, November 5). No, CBS Sports, the
Patriots have not found an edge on coin flips. Retrieved from
http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/11/nocbs/?fbclid=IwAR1PyAfLz1qT0efdRRWW5W7AQz6lvR-bB6GurcBNWDVMYcycfEO6WCcGqe0
Hi Heather,
ReplyDeleteI think back in your Voice Thread you mentioned how your students are interested in football. Similarly to what I said on Courtney's blog post this week, choosing a text based upon your students interests is so beneficial. They immediately connect to the topic and want to complete the reading and task. I also like how this article presents itself so that students can form and discuss their perspective of the events regarding the Patriots. When it was announced that they would be playing in the Super Bowl, my 9-year-olds had a lot to say about the controversy that surrounds that team.
As for the strategy you used this week, I like "Paired Questioning." Just like "Say Something," this strategy promotes student collaboration and asks students to hold their partner accountable in order to appropriately engage with the text.
Hi Heather,
ReplyDeleteI love how you are constantly thinking about your students interests and having that in the forefront of your planning. Allowing your students to connect with your lessons by being engaged, using text to self, and attaining their prior knowledge will allow them to comprehend and understand the text better.I agree that all aged students can connect with football, even my kindergartners either watch or play football. I know you had stated that your students play football, so including the coin toss activity within your lessons, allows them to connect on that level as well.
I did like the strategy of paired questioning. I can definitely see this working in a middle school or high school classroom. Allowing the students to determine questions while reading, gives them an opportunity to dig deeper into the text to better understand.
Hello Heather
ReplyDeleteI found the interdisciplinary connections to be meaningful and interesting. When students make these connections they tend to think more critically, problem-solve, make real-world connections and become more aware of the relationship of a skill from one content area to another.
Since the article is well organized and meaningful, students are more likely to read with interest. Students will be able to gain an appreciation for statistics, identify bias and misconceptions and allow students to respect one another’s opinions. I like your closure of the lesson because each group will be able to appreciate the varied points of view of their peers. It is important for students to understand that there is not always a right or wrong answer. They must also realize that all opinions matter; however, sometimes we must agree on those that are valued most.